Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that divided the country and unleashed turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the political, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in universities but scarcely any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unity or the current situation. Both writes two essays that aim for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and societal statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates cover flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters report they prefer unification but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his era is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate points, he said. "One side will win here and somebody will eventually lose but both parties has possesses something to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster must engage with the debate, said the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
