Just eight weeks in the past when Morgan Rogers stood on the pitch at Sunderland, looking confused as the Villa manager scolded him for failing to anticipate a penetrating pass. Back then, as the club failed to win in six, the question was if his displays were an indicator or the reason of the team's broader struggles.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
In the latest match, however, the touchline reaction was entirely decidedly more positive. After the England international swept in his second strike to restore the lead for Villa, Emery tore off his winter coat, threw his arms wide and roared. The team continued to ten wins in a row and despite not winning any of their first six games, are somehow only three points adrift of pace-setters Arsenal.
Are They Genuine Hopefuls?
It remains a rather hard proposition to address. History, a general sense of this institution, indicates otherwise. Moreover, they've rarely been entirely convincing during this run, while the positive results have piled up.
Per the data, in only two games has the side posted an expected goals figure notably superior than the opposition. For a club that have strung together a ten-match winning streak, they seem weirdly vulnerable – however right now the tight outcomes are swinging for them.
The Winning Formula
The prevailing tactic seems to be to exchange chances with an opponent before hoping Rogers to save the day with some crisp finishes. This was the case against Leeds, it happened at West Ham, and once more against the Red Devils.
The initial strike originated from a brilliant finish, bent precisely inside the post from a wide position. The follow-up goal acted as a slight scruffier version of goal number one capitalizing on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
Is It Sustainable?
Logic says not. Against United, Manchester United had a greater number of attempts and more direct attempts. The team has won each of their last eight by a single goal. The defence has been breached in all except one of those games.
A reversion to average could be the greatest opponent they will encounter over the coming weeks. The forward, surely, cannot maintain drilling the football past despairing goalkeepers indefinitely.
A Case for Belief
Perhaps there is another reality whereby, instead of luck running out, performances begin to trend towards results. Vital cogs might still return to peak condition.
- The main striker could start finding the net regularly.
- The winger might become the force he showed in Germany.
- The defensive duo will eventually return from injury, bolstering a sometimes shaky defence.
Perhaps there is in that the seeds for a sustained push, yet it seems unlikely can persist in leaning entirely on Morgan Rogers.
Relishing the Unlikely
But then, this is a surprise. Nobody thought Villa would be in the top three for the holidays. And without a doubt earlier this season, few could imagine Rogers now would be spearheading a championship pursuit while establishing himself as a vital player for the national team.
This winning streak is to be savoured for the very reason that it appears so improbable. When Rogers faced the North End at the final whistle orchestrating the applause, it was clear to be loving the experience. Which he fully merits. These runs of form do not happen often and should be relished.
